Companies Now 'Stay Private' Much Longer. If you are CEO or an Investor - This Will Help You Understand Why That Matters...
Companies are staying private both more frequently, and for longer periods of time. This is a real thing. I believe that it is a trend that is here to stay. Has the trend gone too far? Perhaps. To that point, we have seen some of the larger private tech companies go public over the previous few months. However, these recent IPO’s are just a drop in the bucket.
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A Financial Crisis Caused by Natural Disaster is Different - COVID19
Like you, I have been trying to make sense of the speed with which the economy, the market and our health have all seemed to have disintegrated so quickly in the last month. Also like you, I am stuck at home and have spent way more time than usual watching the news and talking to family and friends. Given that I am in the investment industry, as you would expect, I have been getting a ton of questions about the financial crisis aspect of COVID19.
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Where Have All the Public Companies Gone?
I recently revisited this piece that I wrote back in 2017. It is interesting to note that since the time I originally wrote it, the number of IPO’s - particularly tech-related - has increased. However, these IPO’s are still just a drop in the bucket. The trend toward private markets over public markets continues. It is why I spend most of my time and efforts in the private equity and venture space.
The original piece that I was discussing was an article in the Wall Street Journal from Jason Thomas of the Carlyle Group titled “Where Have All the Public Companies Gone?” I think that this is an important article for investors to understand. It highlights the fact that the very nature of the stock market has changed dramatically in the last 20 years, which has implications for your portfolio.
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The Incredible Shrinking Universe of Public Stocks
In 1996, there were over 7,300 companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. By 2016, that number had dropped to around 3,600. In twenty years, roughly 50% of investable stock market companies ‘disappeared.’ There are now fewer publicly-traded companies in the U.S. than there were in 1976, even though U.S. GDP is now three times larger. Those companies did not go away - they are now being held privately. Back in 2017, Credit Suisse wrote an article that I think helps to showcase why private markets are so important today. I have included the link to the article below.
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